The Kentucky Derby winner will not come from the Mutuel Field
Horseracing Betting Lines
02/13/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Since the Kentucky Derby Future Wager began in 1999, the mutuel field has been the correct bet in six of the 13 Pool 1 wagers, including three of the last four years. However, half of those winners paid $6.00 or less and two others were sent off at odds of 5-2 and 3-1. There is certainly no value in betting the chalk.
The only year a single entrant won the Derby since 2008 was two years ago when Super Saver crossed the wire first. That year, the "all others" wager was the heavy 3-2 betting choice while the eventual Derby winner went off at 20-1. Super Saver's Pool 1 odds were actually lower than in Pools 2 and 3 when he went off at 24-1 and 35-1, respectively. Ironically, his odds wound up much lower on Derby Day when the son of Maria's Mon was the 8-1 second choice.
This year, the "all others" wager closed at 3-2 while Union Rags (7-1) was the lone single horse below 10-1. Since the field was bet so hard, it left some appealing odds on some pretty decent horses.
Those who liked Liaison prior to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes were loving life when the Bob Baffert-trained colt closed at a hefty 56-1. If the son of Indian Charlie had won that race, he would have been the third or fourth choice in Pool 1 at around 15-1.
I'll Have Another, the winner of the Robert B. Lewis, is still not getting any respect as his 29-1 Pool 1 odds are not that much lower than the 43-1 number he went off on Feb 4.
The fact these two horses have already bankrolled enough graded earnings to hold down a spot in the 20-horse field gives even more credence to their chances of winning the Derby at huge Future Wager odds.
It seems as if the betting public has opted to stay away from the California three-year-olds as the majority of them are tremendous prices. Five other colts from out west are all over 20-1 and some much higher than that.
Out of Bounds looked like a colt on his way to bigger and better things after he won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 7. His trainer Eoin Harty has been high on him for a long time and the horse will try to keep moving forward in his next start, the San Felipe Stakes on Mar. 10. Out of Bounds closed at 23-1.
Fed Biz wound up at 21-1, which might be a bargain when all is said and done. The son of Giant's Causeway looked like a beast in his second lifetime start as he crushed Consulado by almost six lengths.
The $950,000 purchase doesn't have any graded earnings as of yet, which is probably why he closed at 21-1. Still, he is one of the more talented three- year-olds around and Bob Baffert will do his best to find a race where Fed Biz can collect enough money to qualify for the Derby. The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park is worth $200,000 more than the San Felipe so that might be his next destination.
Three other west coast horses ended up at greater odds than those previously mentioned.
Empire Way and Rousing Sermon ran second and third, respectively, in the Robert B. Lewis and surprisingly, both closed at huge odds as the former is 33-1 while the latter is 71-1.
In addition, Midnight Transfer, who has yet to race around two turns, is 67-1. His next start will be the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes, and if he wins or places in that event, that 67-1 will look pretty sweet.
The only California-based horse that is lower than 20-1 is Creative Cause, who wound up at 17-1. The gray colt is scheduled to run in this Sunday's San Vicente Stakes at seven-furlongs. The rest of the expected field does not look too strong, but don't forget, Creative Cause comes into the race off a two- month layoff while dropping back in distance. If he does indeed lose or fail to win impressively, the best time to bet Creative Cause might be in Pool 2.
OTHER POOL 1 THOUGHTS
Todd Pletcher has four of the 23 single entrants and two of them, Algorithms and El Padrino, were heavily bet. The former wound up as the 12-1 third choice behind Union Rags and the field, while the latter came in as the fourth overall choice at 16-1. It is interesting to note that only one of the last five non-field horses to win the Kentucky Derby paid less than $40 in Pool 1.
Pletcher's other two colts closed at very playable numbers.
Discreet Dancer may have distance limitations but he could be the most talented three-year-old in the country. His 30-1 odds are enormously juicy.
Gemologist has not gotten as much publicity as the other three horses but he could wind up being the Kentucky Derby winner. The reason for the lack of hype is his lack of activity as the son of Tiznow has not raced since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. Furthermore, his first published workout of the year came on Feb. 5.
Gemologist could take a similar path to Kentucky as Super Saver did if he starts his three-year-old campaign in next month's Tampa Bay Derby. The other option is waiting another week for the Rebel Stakes. The undefeated colt wound up taking a lot of money over the last two days as he dropped to 22-1 after closing at 42-1 on Friday night.
The horse that took the most money since the first night was Take Charge Indy. The Patrick Byrne-trained colt was 30-1 on the morning line, jumped all the way up to 83-1 after Friday, and then closed at 42-1.
Hansen, who will make his next appearance in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, wound up at 26-1 after his poor performance over a sloppy track in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Even though he opened as the 12-1 third choice (of the single entrants), the 26-1 is still an underlay since it is doubtful he will be able to handle the 10-furlong trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Alpha closed at 19-1, a price that also looks to be a tad low considering how much of a head case he is at the starting gate. That attribute will not serve him well at Churchill Downs when the drone of over 150,000 screaming fans will be buzzing in his ears.
Union Rags is worthy of being the favorite (outside the field) as he gets ready for his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park later this month. However, he has a couple of question marks that need to be answered, such as his tendency to drift through the stretch, as well as a pedigree that might not be as effective at 1 1/4-miles.
As for the field, there are a few colts that stand out such as Spring Hill Farm, Sky Kingdom and Russian Greek, but it is best to wait until Pools 2 and 3 to see if they become single entrants. If they do, those pools would be the ones to bet on them, rather than taking the 3-2 odds they are currently saddled with.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Union Rags - Julien Leparoux replaces Javier Castellano in the saddle; 2) Algorithms - Castellano chooses Pletcher and Algorithms over Union Rags; 3) I'll Have Another - The Santa Anita Derby will be next; 4) Fed Biz - The buzz around Biz is abundant; 5) Gemologist - Still weeks away from his three-year- old debut; 6) Discreet Dancer - Needs to show he can handle two turns; 7) Alpha - The Wood Memorial is next; 8) Out of Bounds - Awaits the San Felipe in early March; 9) Creative Cause - Comes into the San Vicente off a smashing 6- furlong work; 10) El Padrino - The Risen Star is next; 11) Hansen - Heads to New York for the Gotham Stakes; 12) Empire Way - Will meet a tough field in the San Felipe.
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Super Bowl XLIV Odds
Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
To visit this online sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.